Possible scenario
Inflation Data Cools
30% Chance
Incoming inflation figures soften enough to make Musalem's argument less persuasive to the broader FOMC. The Fed keeps a tightening bias in its language, but markets push back the timing of additional hikes.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Utilities +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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