Possible scenario
Review Stays Contained
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a conventional oversight process rather than an immediate legal or budget crisis. The Office of Special Counsel, GAO, and Senate investigators request records on the use of 2024 Trump campaign footage, while agencies argue the ads are issue-oriented public communications.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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