Possible scenario
Ads Pulled Quietly
20% Chance
The White House or sponsoring agency may decide the legal risk is not worth extending the ad buy. Pulling or revising the spots would reduce the odds of a formal Hatch Act or appropriations violation fight, while allowing officials to say they acted out of caution.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.