Possible scenario
Administration Doubles Down
25% Chance
The administration treats the controversy as a political fight and releases another ad using Trump campaign-era material. This increases congressional scrutiny and media attention, but markets still see the issue as political noise unless it threatens appropriations or agency operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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