Possible scenario
Maritime Disruption Worsens
25% Chance
The IRGC continues maritime pressure despite the U.S. strike, either through another tanker attack or mine threat. The result is not a full closure of Hormuz, but shipping, insurance, and crude markets price a materially higher probability of supply disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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