Possible scenario
Diplomatic Deconfliction Emerges
20% Chance
Regional intermediaries move quickly to prevent a cycle of U.S. strikes and IRGC reprisals from closing the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran may still claim retaliation rights, but a quiet pause in attacks becomes the practical outcome.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
- Consumer Services +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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