Possible scenario
Contained Tit-For-Tat
45% Chance
The U.S. strike remains a limited tactical response, and the IRGC avoids a major follow-on attack while preserving the option for harassment. This is the most likely path because both Washington and Tehran have incentives to signal resolve without triggering a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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