Possible scenario
Relief Rally Emerges
20% Chance
Treasury selling pauses after softer economic data, calmer Fed commentary or dip-buying from pensions and insurers. A decline in yields would provide near-term relief for equities, especially long-duration technology, utilities and housing-linked shares.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.6%
- Technology +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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