Possible scenario
Fed Hawkishness Hardens
25% Chance
Federal Reserve officials validate the market's higher-rate interpretation by emphasizing persistent inflation and the need for additional 2026 tightening. The front end and long end both remain under pressure, limiting any near-term rebound in risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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