Possible scenario
Forced Selling Extends
30% Chance
The most immediate risk is a continuation of forced selling after a 40% drawdown from the June peak. Retail leverage, ETF redemptions and foreign outflows keep pressure on Korean semiconductor and financial shares.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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