Possible scenario
AI Demand Repriced
30% Chance
The equity crash becomes a signal that investors are reassessing AI chip demand, memory pricing and hyperscaler spending. This scenario depends on whether the selloff is validated by company guidance and order data.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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