Possible scenario
Serious Incident Escalates
18% Chance
A collision, ramming, or water-cannon strike causes serious injury or death, forcing Manila and Washington to respond more forcefully. The U.S. does not immediately enter combat, but Mutual Defense Treaty consultations and enhanced patrols raise regional risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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