Managed Maritime Standoff

Manila rejects Beijing's threats but keeps resupply and medevac operations limited, escorted, and publicly documented. China continues Coast Guard pressure around Second Thomas Shoal, but both sides avoid lethal force because the costs of triggering the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty remain high.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.