Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Pressure Persists
30% Chance
China maintains coercive activity below the threshold of armed conflict, using water cannons, ramming risks, lasers, and vessel swarming. The Philippines publicizes each incident and leans harder on the U.S., Japan, and Australia for patrols and legal support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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