Possible scenario
Russian Coercive Response
20% Chance
Russia reacts to Lithuania's legal shift with coercive signaling, likely below the threshold of open conflict. The most probable path is cyber pressure, disinformation, border disruptions, and exercises near Kaliningrad or Belarus rather than a direct military confrontation with NATO.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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