Possible scenario
Nuclear Option Deferred
26% Chance
The nuclear-weapons provision remains primarily a legal and political signal, not an immediate deployment plan. NATO members avoid a rapid change to nuclear sharing because of escalation risk, infrastructure limits, and the desire to keep alliance unity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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