Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Deepens
20% Chance
Iran focuses on coercive maritime disruption rather than direct attacks on U.S. land bases. This path is highly consequential because the prior wave already hit 24 ships in Hormuz, making insurers, tanker operators, and Gulf exporters central actors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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