Possible scenario
Sustained Hormuz Harassment
45% Chance
Iran continues calibrated strikes and warnings against UAE-linked shipping while avoiding a formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is the most likely near-term path because the IRGC has already established a pattern of drone and missile harassment without triggering a full naval war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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