Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
25% Chance
Regional mediators move quickly to prevent a wider tanker war, using Oman and Qatar as channels between Tehran and Abu Dhabi. Iran may claim deterrence success while quietly reducing attacks, especially if Gulf states avoid public military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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