Possible scenario
Coalition Naval Response
20% Chance
The United States, UAE, and possibly the United Kingdom organize visible escorts or interdiction patrols to deter further IRGC attacks. This lowers the probability of unchecked harassment but raises the chance of a direct military incident.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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