Possible scenario
Fragmented Implementation Persists
27% Chance
Allies agree that China's leverage is a strategic risk but diverge on subsidies, export controls and local-content rules. The outcome is a patchwork of national measures that helps some projects but falls short of a unified anti-coercion framework.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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