Possible scenario
Beijing Escalates Leverage
22% Chance
China responds to allied coordination by tightening licenses or slowing approvals for rare-earth magnets and related processing technology. This is a realistic risk given prior curbs on gallium, germanium and rare earths, but the near-term market impact remains mostly sector-specific.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.4%
- Industrials -1.3%
- Technology -1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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