Possible scenario
Dispute Delays Project
22% Chance
The dispute hardens if Seoul publicly rejects the administration's framing and Washington links the project to trade or shipping costs. The immediate market impact would still be modest because Alaska LNG is a long-dated infrastructure project, but named participants would face higher execution risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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