Possible scenario
Refining degradation widens
45% Chance
The Salavat strike is most likely part of Ukraine’s continuing campaign to degrade Russian refining rather than an isolated raid. With Volgograd already halted and prior reports of widespread capacity loss, markets price a higher probability of Russian product shortages and firmer diesel margins.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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