Possible scenario
Oversight Fight Expands
30% Chance
Senate Republicans use the bar complaint to broaden pressure on DOJ over Smith's Trump investigations, especially the reported seizure of donor checks and subpoenas to news outlets. The dispute becomes a congressional oversight fight rather than a meaningful near-term disciplinary proceeding.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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