Possible scenario
Regional Contagion Builds
25% Chance
Investors interpret the sixth bank failure as evidence that deposit pressure and unrealized securities losses are spreading. Funding costs rise for smaller institutions, and banks with concentrated commercial real-estate books see the sharpest equity declines.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -4.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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