Possible scenario
No Russian Acceptance
45% Chance
Moscow does not formally accept the White House refinery proposal, keeping the status quo of reciprocal energy strikes. This is the most likely path because the Kremlin has not confirmed Trump's truce claim and both sides retain military incentives to target energy infrastructure before winter.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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