Possible scenario
Limited Refinery Pause
25% Chance
Russia does not endorse Trump's broader characterization but agrees to discuss or quietly observe a narrower pause on refinery attacks. This would fit the White House clarification that the proposal concerns refineries, not a confirmed energy-wide ceasefire.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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