Possible scenario
Broader Energy Truce
15% Chance
The refinery proposal becomes a stepping stone toward a broader winter energy arrangement. This is less likely because Russia has not accepted even the narrower refinery plan, but both sides could see value in limiting highly visible civilian-energy damage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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