Possible scenario
Gradual Hawkish Consensus
42% Chance
Logan's call for a 50-basis-point move shifts the center of discussion in a hawkish direction, but most Fed officials avoid endorsing an outsized hike. The likeliest near-term outcome is that markets price a higher terminal rate while still expecting the FOMC to move in 25-basis-point steps.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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