Possible scenario
Fifty-Basis-Point Push
24% Chance
A more hawkish scenario develops if additional Fed officials argue that the 2025 cuts must be reversed quickly. This would make investors consider an outsized hike at the next one or two meetings, tightening financial conditions before any actual policy decision.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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