Possible scenario
Dovish Counterweight Holds
22% Chance
Senior Fed officials may limit the effect of Logan's comments by emphasizing data dependence and the risks of overtightening. In this scenario, the market treats the 50-basis-point call as a hawkish outlier rather than a committee signal.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.