Possible scenario
Regulators Tighten Conditions
25% Chance
South African regulators allow bank crypto custody to proceed but impose conservative controls around capital treatment, client disclosure, segregation, and anti-money-laundering monitoring. The product survives, though growth is slower and more compliance-heavy than early adopters expected.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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