Possible scenario
Talks Drag On
30% Chance
Vance's demand becomes the basis for negotiations, but Iran resists deep reductions and Israel insists on stronger verification. The war continues at a lower tempo while diplomats try to define what counts as a meaningful nuclear cut.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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