Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
20% Chance
The demand for meaningful nuclear cuts is rejected or overtaken by military events. Iran, Israel and U.S.-aligned Gulf states enter a more dangerous phase, with energy infrastructure and maritime routes again central to the conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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