Possible scenario
Negotiated Nuclear Deal
38% Chance
Washington, Tehran, Israel and Gulf intermediaries move toward a ceasefire tied to verifiable nuclear reductions. Vance's public demand becomes the opening position for a deal centered on dilution, removal or monitored sealing of enriched uranium stocks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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