Possible scenario
US Export Curbs
20% Chance
The Trump administration follows through on its threat to restrict diesel exports in response to record domestic prices. This would be disruptive for Atlantic Basin trade because US Gulf Coast barrels are an important marginal source for Latin America and Europe.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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