Possible scenario
Shipping Risk Escalates
18% Chance
Iran-aligned forces or Iranian officials intensify threats around the Bab el-Mandeb corridor, reducing confidence that reserve releases can offset transit risk. The market prices a larger geopolitical premium into Brent and refined fuels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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