Possible scenario
Limited Tanker War
30% Chance
Iran continues calibrated attacks on shipping without forcing a full U.S.-Iran military exchange. Aramco's route diversification becomes more urgent, while oil, tanker insurance and freight markets price a persistent but contained disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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