Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
18% Chance
Regional mediators use the threat to Gulf exports and Aramco's bypass push to bring Washington, Tehran and Gulf states into a limited maritime arrangement. This does not resolve the underlying dispute, but it reduces near-term tanker-strike risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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