Possible scenario
Contained Local Spill
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Omani response teams and contracted salvors keep the Gem No.2 leak localized after the earlier fire was extinguished. The vessel remains damaged, but the spill is treated as an environmental cleanup rather than a regional shipping or oil-supply shock.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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