Possible scenario
Reciprocal Expulsions
15% Chance
The seven-person compromise fails and Israel forces a downgrade or departure of U.K. officials tied to Jerusalem and Palestinian affairs. London then expels a portion of Israeli diplomats, creating the sharpest bilateral rupture in years.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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