Possible scenario
Managed Legal Compromise
30% Chance
The administration narrows its election-security posture to reduce litigation risk while preserving a role for federal law enforcement. Courts allow a limited presence, but only under written protocols and usually outside polling rooms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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