Possible scenario
Serious Cryptographic Alarm
15% Chance
A low-probability but high-impact outcome emerges if a credible team claims a practical shortcut against a foundational hash. Even before full verification, markets would price a crypto-security risk premium, particularly in Bitcoin proxies, exchanges, and miners.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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