Possible scenario
Limited US Strike
35% Chance
The United States proceeds with a planned air and missile campaign focused on nuclear, missile, and IRGC command targets. Washington tries to keep the operation bounded and signals it is not seeking regime change, but Tehran still faces pressure to respond.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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