Possible scenario
Iranian Preemptive Retaliation
20% Chance
Iran decides the US strike threat is credible enough to justify acting first or through proxies. The goal is to raise the cost of US action without inviting a full invasion, but miscalculation risk rises sharply around Gulf bases, ships, and energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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