Possible scenario
Coercive Pause
30% Chance
The CBR alert and US strike planning become bargaining leverage rather than an immediate trigger for attack. Back-channel diplomacy through Oman, Qatar, or European intermediaries creates a short window for de-escalation, though military forces remain on high readiness.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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