Possible scenario
Midwest Gasoline Tightens
30% Chance
The catalytic cracker issue lasts long enough to reduce regional gasoline supply in Illinois and nearby Midwest markets. With national pump prices already above $4 for a record stretch, traders add a regional scarcity premium to gasoline cracks.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- PSX-1.9%
- +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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