Possible scenario
Debris Source Identified
28% Chance
Follow-up analysis links the crater to a human-made object, such as an old rocket upper stage or defunct spacecraft. The market impact remains narrow because the event occurs on the Moon and does not create an immediate Earth-orbit collision risk.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- LUNR-1.2%
- SPCX-0.5%
- RKLB-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.