Possible scenario
Renewed Failure Cycle
25% Chance
A less likely but material risk is that the stock rout exposes another weak regional or community bank. Given the recent Nano Banc failure and the market's focus on unrealized losses, even a small receivership could produce a sharp short-term reaction in bank equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -3.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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